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by | 16 Oct 2013 · 05:24

Frontex FRAN Report for Q1 2013

In July of this year, Frontex released its first quarter (January – March) 2013 report. As in past quarters, the 70-page report provided in-depth information about irregular migration patterns at the EU external borders. The report is based on data provided by 30 Member State border-control authorities, and presents results of statistical analysis of quarterly variations in eight irregular migration indicators and one asylum  indicator (here is a link to our summary of the 2012 fourth quarter report).

In Q1 2013 all indicators of irregular migration were reduced in comparison with the final quarter of 2012. In most instances these declines were consistent with past documentation of seasonal variation; typically the first few months of each year are associated with reduced pressure at the border compared to other times of the year. Here are some highlights from the report focusing on the sea borders:

  • The Greek operation Aspida (see the 2012 Q4 summary for details) has resulted in a dramatic reduction of irregular migration across the Greek-Turkish border. As a result, one of the three alternative routes increasingly utilized is: migrants leaving the west coast of Turkey to illegally cross the Eastern Aegean Sea towards the Greek Islands. This border section ranked second at the EU level in terms of detections. Syrians and Afghans were both detected at similar frequencies of around 500 each over the three-month period.
  • The JO Poseidon Sea 2012 was also active during the reporting period in order to tackle the flow of irregular migrants penetrating the external EU sea borders in the Eastern Mediterranean mainly from Turkey and, to a lesser extent, from Egypt.

  • Syrians, were increasingly detected at the Greek sea border with Turkey (Eastern Aegean Sea) and the Bulgarian land border with Turkey.

  • There were fewer detections of illegal border-crossing than ever before, with just 9 717 detections. The drop was limited mostly to sea borders.The JO Poseidon Land 2012 was active during Q1 2013.
    Screen Shot 2013-10-12 at 12.31.12 PM
    Here are excerpts from the Report focusing on the sea borders:
    [***]
    4.2 Routes
    • In the Eastern Mediterranean, detections tend to be characterised by Asian and some North African migrants illegally crossing the border from Turkey into Greece. In the second half of 2012 detections were much reduced following increased operational activity at the Greek land border with Turkey, where most detections were previously reported (see Section 4.1.1.).
    • On the main Central Mediterranean route, which includes the Italian Pelagic Islands (Linosa, Lampione and Lampedusa) and Malta, most detections tend to be of migrants arriving on boats from North Africa. During the previous quarter there were fewer detections of North African nationalities such as Tunisians and Egyptians but there was a surge of migrants from sub-Saharan countries such as Eritrea, the Gambia and Mali, all of which were detected in much higher numbers during the last there months of 2012 compared with Q3 2012. In the current reporting period, the number of detected Somalis decreased, resulting in the top three nationalities – Somalis, Gambians and Egyptians– being detected at similarly low levels of around 200–250 each over the three-month period (Fig. 5).Screen Shot 2013-10-12 at 1.57.51 PM

    [***]

    4.2.1 Eastern Mediterranean Route

    • In Q1 2013 there were 2 734 detections of il- legal border-crossing on the Eastern Mediterranean route, which was a decrease of 66% compared to the same period in 2012 but nevertheless still constituting nearly 30% of all detections at the EU level. In effect, this route remained the major entry point to the Schengen area.

      With nearly 1 000 detections in Q1 2013, Syrians were by far the most detected nationality on this route. More than half of these detections were in the Eastern Aegean Sea region, with significant numbers also at the Bulgarian land border with Turkey.

      [***]

      1. East Aegean Sea

        This border section ranked second at the EU level in Q1 2013. The most frequently detected migrants were Syrians and Afghans, followed Sri Lankans, whose number has recently increased.

        The JO Poseidon Sea 2012 was operational throughout the reporting period, focusing on tackling the flow of irregular migrants penetrating the external EU sea borders in the Eastern Mediterranean mainly from Turkey and, to a lesser extent, from Egypt.

        Syrians have been the most commonly detected migrants during the operation so far in 2013. Most were men travelling alone but here were some family units, and all were heading for Sweden or Germany to claim asylum. Once they entered Turkey, those intending to enter the EU travelled to Istanbul in order to make contact with facilitation networks. They stayed in Istanbul for between 1–12 weeks before being taken by van to the west coast of Turkey to depart towards the Greek eastern Aegean Islands.

        Afghans were also detected in this region. Most were previously resident in Iran and had decided to travel to the EU due to deteriorating employment conditions. The Afghan community in Iran can easily find criminal networks that can facilitate them to Turkey and then to Greece. Once in Turkey, the Afghan migrants were transported by public transport to Istanbul and from there mainly by private transportation directly to departure area on the western coast of Turkey, where they boarded rubber boats destined for the Greek eastern Aegean Islands.

    [***]
    4.2.2 Central Mediterranean Route
    • Since early 2011 migrants from Tunisia have been among the most commonly detected migrants arriving in the Central Mediterranean region but during the first three months of 2013 only 75 Tunisians were detected. In fact nearly all of the top 10 nationalities in Q1 2013 were detected in much lower numbers than during the final quarter of 2012.

      Migrants from Somalia ranked top in the region but were detected at their lowest level for over a year.

      [***]

      A total of 233 migrants from the Gambia were detected in the Central Mediterranean during Q1 2013 which is the highest ever level for this nationality resulting in them ranking second in this region, followed by 216 Egyptians.

      The JO Hermes 2012 was operational just for the first month of the reporting period. The operation was established to support the Italian authorities in tackling maritime illegal migration on the coasts of Sicily, Pantelleria and the Pelagic Islands (Lampedusa, Linosa, Lampione).

      In January 2013, there was only one incident reported under JO Hermes whereby a total of 35 irregular migrants were detected, 32 of which were Syrian and three were Egyptian. [***] The disembarkation point was near Syracuse but this time the interception took place inland, implying that the facilitators (and probably some migrants) evaded detection.

      The absence of boats from Tunisia and Libya may be due to the bad weather conditions throughout the Mediterranean area.

      Although FRAN data suggest that detections of migrants from Syria were low in this region during the first three months of 2013 (85), there were some reports of boats arriving directly from Syria.

    [***]
    4.2.3 Western Mediterranean Route

    • In Q1 2013 there were only around 1 000 detections of illegal border-crossing in the Western Mediterranean region, which consists of several areas of the southern Spanish coast as well as the land borders of Ceuta and Melilla, where three-quarters of all detections were reported. At the end of 2012 we reported vastly increased detections of migrants from Chad, Cameroon, Mali and Guinea arriving in the region of Cadiz but this did not continue into the first few months of 2013.

      Analysing the nationalities detected on this route is problematic as half were reported by the Spanish authorities as being of unknown nationality. However, open sources suggest that there have been increased reports of African migrants storming the border fence in Melilla.

    [***]
    4.2.4 Western African Route

    • In the first quarter of 2013, there were just a few individual detections of illegal border-crossing in this region, which is the same level as during the same period in 2012. During the previous quarter there were 30 or so detections of both Gambians and Moroccans but neither of these nationalities were apparent in the data exchanged for the first three months of 2013. Hence irregular migration pressure on the Western African route in much reduced.

      ————

      Click here for a copy of the report.

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by | 26 Aug 2013 · 06:20

Frontex FRAN Report for Q4 2012

This summary is a follow-up to our previous post, which discussed the Frontex FRAN third quarter report for 2012. In May of this year, Frontex released its report for the fourth quarter (October – December) of 2012. (Frontex has since released its Report for Q1 2013; we will post a summary of this recent Report shortly.) During the fourth quarter 2012 several FRAN indicators varied radically compared with other reporting periods. First, there were only 13 613 detections of illegal border-crossing at the EU level- the lowest ever recorded figure for any quarter since data collection began in 2008. And for the first time since 2010, there were more detections at the sea borders (59%) , primarily in the Central Mediterranean, than at the land borders.  In contrast to the reduction in overall detections of illegal border-crossing, both clandestine entries and asylum applications reached their highest levels by far, with Syrians ranking first among nationalities. Notably, Syrians submitted more asylum claims than any other nationality in this single quarter since data collection began.

Here are some highlights from the Report focusing on the sea borders:

  • There were 13 613 detections of illegal border-crossing at the EU level, which is the lowest ever recorded figure since data collection began in early 2008.
  • For the first time since 2010 there were more detections of illegal border-crossing at the external sea border (59%) than at the land border, which reflects the increasing importance of the Central Mediterranean route, and increased detections in the Aegean Sea in response to Greek operational activity at the land border with Turkey.
  • The [five] border sections reporting the most detections in Q4 2012 were:
  1. the Italian Pelagic Islands (Lampedusa), where there were increased arrivals of Eritreans and Somalis;
  2. the Greek Aegean Sea, to where Afghans and Syrians were increasingly displaced from the Greek land border with Turkey;
  3. the Greek land border with Albania with a significant trend of Albanian circular migrants, now ranking second at the EU level;
  4. the Spanish land border with Morocco, where there was a steady trend of unknown nationalities (probably sub-Saharans)and Algerians;
  5. the Bulgarian land border with Turkey, to where Palestinians and Syrians were increasingly displaced from the Greek land border with Turkey.
  • More detections were reported by Italy than any other Member State, and more were reported from the Italian Pelagic Islands than any other border section. Somalis continued to arrive in Lampedusa in increasing numbers, but this development was overshadowed by a massive increase in the number of Eritreans arriving in Lampedusa and Malta from October onwards.
  • In Q4 2012 there was an overall decline in the number of migrants arriving in the [Central Mediterranean] region mostly due to fewer North African nationalities such as Tunisians and Egyptians. However, there was a surge of migrants from sub-Saharan countries such as Eritrea, the Gambia and Mali, all of which were detected in much higher numbers than during the previous quarter – hence opposing seasonal declines expected at this time of year and observed for many other nationalities.
  • In accordance with the ‘Processo Verbale’ of 5 April 2011 (an agreement between Italy and Tunisia on cooperation in the field of migration policy) in November and December 2012, Tunisian nationals were returned to Tunis or were recovered by the Tunisian authorities in international waters.
  • [In the Central Mediterranean,] [i]n contrast to decreased detections of migrants from North Africa, there were significant increases compared to the previous quarter, in detections of migrants from several sub-Saharan countries such as Eritrea (+200%), the Gambia (+90%) and Mali (+350%), as well as a steady and significant flow of migrants from Somalia, now ranked second in the region behind Eritreans.
  • [T]he situation of the migration management by the Libyan authorities remains critical, both on land and at sea.
  • There are still reports about extreme violence against black African nationals in Libya. Most of the migrants reported to have been beaten by Libyan police after being arrested and also by members of the facilitation networks.
  • In Q4 2012 there were nearly 1 900 detections of illegal border-crossing in the Western Mediterranean region, which consists of several areas of the southern Spanish coast as well as the land borders of Ceuta and Melilla, where almost exactly half of all detections were reported. Going into the final quarter of the year there were vastly increased detections of migrants from Chad, Cameroon, Mali and Guinea arriving in the region of Cadiz.
  • Asylum applications were at by far their highest level since data collection began in early 2008, with Syrians ranking first among nationalities, followed by Afghans.

Here are excerpts from the Report focusing on the sea borders:

4.1 Detections of Illegal Border-crossing

“Overall in Q4 2012 there were 13 613 detections of illegal border-crossing at the EU level, which was the lowest figure since data collection began in early 2008. The low number of detections compared to other quarters was due to vastly increased operational activity at the Greek land border with Turkey, where in recent years the majority of migrants were detected (operation Aspida, see next section). Reduced detections were also in part due to the overlapping effects of the end of the Arab Spring in its initial countries (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia) and far fewer detections of Albanian circular migrants detected illegally crossing the land border into Greece.

For the first time since 2010 there were more detections of illegal border-crossing at the external sea border (59%) than at the land border, which reflects the increasing importance of the Central Mediterranean route, and increased detections in the Aegean Sea in response to Greek operational activity at the land border with Turkey. …

Figure 2 FRAN Report Q4 2012[***]

More detections were reported by Italy than any other Member State, and more were reported from the Italian Pelagic Islands than any other border section. Somalis continued to arrive in Lampedusa in increasing numbers, but this development was overshadowed by a massive increase in the number of Eritreans arriving in Lampedusa and Malta from October onwards.

[***]

In Q4 2012, most (nine) Member States reported increased detections of illegal border-crossing compared to the same period of the previous year, albeit from relatively low bases (Fig. 3). For example, detections in Malta rose sevenfold, from Q4 2011 to Q4 2012, mostly due to increased detections of Eritreans, who also played a major role in doubling the number of detections in Italy compared to a year previously….

[***]

During the final quarter of 2012, the nationality with the fastest growing number of detections of illegal border-crossing in terms of absolute increase was Eritreans: up almost threefold from 352 in Q4 2011 to nearly 1 300 in the current reporting period. Detections of migrants from Mali increased more sharply but from a lower base: from 37 to 379 over the same period. In both cases, these migrants were almost exclusively detected in Lampedusa having left on small fishing boats from Libya.

[***]

4.2 Routes

[D]uring the final quarter of 2012 detections of illegal border-crossing on the three main irregular migration routes converged to very similar levels with only 2 000 detections separating the three main routes.”

Fran Q4 Eastern Med.4.2.1 Eastern Mediterranean Route

[***]

In recent quarters the most commonly detected have been migrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Algeria and, more recently, Syria. In Q4 2012 the most commonly detected migrants in this region were from Afghanistan, Syria and Palestine but all in much reduced numbers than previously reported….

[***]

Italian Ionian Coast – For some time there has been a steady flow of Afghans and, to a lesser extent, Pakistanis arriving at the southern Italian blue borders of Calabria and Apulia, with some very large increases during Q3 2012. Apparently, many of them had been previously resident in Greece for several years, while some Afghan nationals claimed to have worked in Pakistan for six years, but due to the bad social and working conditions decided to return to Afghanistan and then to move to Europe to improve their economic situation.

In contrast, in Q4 2012 other nationalities, such as Syrian, Bangladeshi and Egyptian, responded to the seasonal weather changes and were correspondingly detected in much lower numbers than during the previous quarter.

The JO Aeneas 2012 in Apulia and Calabria started on 2 July and was extended until 2 January 2013. Overall, the percentage of incidents Screen Shot 2013-06-19 at 4.03.07 PMwhich involved departures from Greece was as high as 78% (Fig. 7). According to operational reports, the decrease in the number of arrivals in Apulia and Calabria from August 2012 was due the implementation of the Greek police operation Aspida stemming the flow of migrants. However, adding to the flow were Greek police operations against irregular migration in the centre of Athens and in other cities of Greece which continued to push irregular migrants out of Greece….

[***]

4.2.2 Central Mediterranean Route

According to FRAN data, in Q4 2012 there were 3,476 reported detections of illegal border-crossing on the main Central Mediterranean route (Italian Pelagic Islands, Sicily and Malta), almost exactly the same number as in the previous quarter and significantly higher than any other quarter both before and after the Arab Spring. However, this figure concealed seasonal decreases for some commonly nationalities and significant increases for others.

[***]

In accordance with the ‘Processo Verbale’ of 5 April 2011 (an agreement between Italy and Tunisia on cooperation in the field of migration policy) in November and December 2012, Tunisian nationals were returned to Tunis or were recovered by the Tunisian authorities in international waters. In 2012, Italian authorities delivered two patrol boats to the Tunisian authorities in order to improve the fight against the trafficking of human beings and irregular immigration. Consistent with declining numbers of Tunisians, detections of Egyptian migrants arriving in the Central Mediterranean region also fell, in this case from 287 in Q3 to just 135 in Q4 2012.

In contrast to decreased detections of migrants from North Africa, there were significant increases compared to the previous quarter, in detections of migrants from several sub-Saharan countries such as Eritrea (+200%), the Gambia (+90%) and Mali (+350%), as well as a steady and significant flow of migrants from Somalia, now ranked second in the region behind Eritreans. Most of these migrants departed from Libya, where, due to a paucity of ground vehicles and boats, low technical and professional levels of the new police forces, the situation of the migration management by the Libyan authorities remains critical, both on land and at sea (Fig. 9).

[****]

There was also a very large increase in the number of Syrians detected in the Central Mediterranean region from just five in Q3 to nearly 100 in Q4 2012, which is consistent with widespread increased detections of this nationality across border sections. However, there is currently no evidence to suggest that the Central Mediterranean area is likely to become the main point of entry for Syrian migrants.

[***]

There are still reports about extreme violence against black African nationals in Libya. Most of the migrants reported to have been beaten by Libyan police after being arrested and also by members of the facilitation networks. The big Somali community in Abu Slim/Tripoli is the main gathering point for migrants originating from the Horn of Africa. From there, a second destination close to the beach is the final stopover before embarking the boats for the crossing to Italy. Some migrants reported that they got afraid when seeing the relatively small rubber dinghies and refused to enter them. Armed guards beat them and forced them to board the boats, not letting anyone leave.

4.2.3 Western Mediterranean Route

In Q4 2012 there were nearly 1,900 detections of illegal border-crossing in the Western Mediterranean region, which consists of several areas of the southern Spanish coast as well as the land borders of Ceuta and Melilla, where almost exactly half of all detections were reported. Going into the final quarter of the year there were vastly increased detections of migrants from Chad, Cameroon, Mali and Guinea arriving in the region of Cadiz.

As has been the case for several years, the most commonly detected migrants were from Algeria, followed by migrants of unknown nationality (presumed to be sub-Saharan Africans), both of which were mostly reported from the land borders with Morocco.

[****]

The JO Indalo 2012 started in this region on 16 May and ran until 31 October 2012 covering five zones of the south-eastern Spanish sea border and extending into the western Mediterranean. Consistent with previous years, the operational area of the JO Indalo continued to be affected by migratory flows mainly originating from North African and sub-Saharan countries, which follow a similar seasonal pattern. Overall there was a 4% decrease in the number of irregular migrants detected compared to the JO Indalo 2011.

There were almost equal numbers of irregular migrants claiming to be from North African countries and the sub-Saharan region. According to the operational data, sub-Saharan migrants claimed to originate mostly from Chad, Guinea Conakry and Mali, whilst most of the migrants from North African countries claimed to be from Algeria and Morocco.

4.2.4 Western African Route

In the final quarter of 2012, there were just 91 detections of illegal border-crossing in this region, which is more than double the number reported during the previous quarter and goes against expected seasonal declines at this time of year. This increase was almost entirely due to migrants from the Gambia, who arrived in the Canary Islands in December significantly adding to the consistent but relatively low flow of Moroccans arriving in this area.

Despite the arrivals of Gambians, the total number of 91 detections was still lower than during the same period in 2011 (i.e. 112, almost exclusively Moroccans). The high level of cooperation between the Spanish, Senegalese and Mauritanian authorities performing joint patrols at sea and on the coastline of these countries has been a significant deterrent factor to prevent irregular migration flows from Senegal and Mauritania towards the Canary Islands.”

Moroccan migrants were mainly young, lower-class, Arabic-speaking males who were undocumented to avoid repatriation. They arrived mainly in migrant boats targeting the Canary Islands.

[***]”

—————

Click here or here for FRAN Q4 2012 Report.

For previous 2012 FRAN Report summaries, click here (Q2) and here (Q3).

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Filed under EU and EU Organizations, Frontex, General, Mediterranean

by | 22 Aug 2013 · 21:56

Frontex FRAN Report for Q3 2012

In January of this year, the Frontex Risk Analysis Unit (RAU) released its 2012 Third Quarter Report (July – September 2012). (Frontex has since released Reports for Q4 2012 and Q1 2013; we will post summaries of these more recent Reports shortly.)  As in past quarters, the 70-page report provided in-depth information about irregular migration patterns at the EU external borders. The report is based on data provided by 30 Member State border-control authorities, and presents results of statistical analysis of quarterly variations in eight irregular migration indicators and one asylum  indicator.

FRAN Q3 2012 CoverDuring 2012 Q3 several FRAN indicators varied dramatically compared with previous reports, including a significant reduction in detections of illegal border-crossing compared with previous third quarters. In fact, there were fewer detections of illegal border-crossing than in any third quarter since data collection began in early 2008. Additionally, this quarter reported the largest number of applications for asylum since data collection began in early 2008, with Syrians ranking first among nationalities.

Here are some highlights from the Report focusing on the sea borders:

  • “There were 22,093 detections of illegal border-crossing at the EU level, which is considerably lower than expected based on previous reporting periods.”
  • “The majority of detections were at the EU external land (66%), rather than sea border, but this was the lowest proportion for some time due to an increase in detections at the Greek sea border with Turkey [***]. Nevertheless, the Greek land border with Turkey was still by far the undisputed hotspot for detections of illegal border-crossing.”
  • “Overall, in Q3 2012 there were fewer detections of illegal border-crossing than in any previous third quarter, following the launch of two Greek Operations: Aspida (Shield) …  and Xenios Zeus…. Perhaps somewhat predictably, there were increased detections of illegal border-crossing at both the Turkish sea border with Greece and land border with Bulgaria, indicative of weak displacement effects from the operational area.”
  • “[T]here were more than 3 500 reported detections of illegal border-crossing on the main Central Mediterranean route (Italian Pelagic Islands, Sicily and Malta), a significant decrease compared to the same reporting period in 2011 during the peak associated with the Arab Spring, but still the highest reported so far in 2012, and higher than the pre-Arab Spring peak of 2010.”
  • “[D]etections in Italy still constituted more than a fifth of all detections at the EU level. Detections in Apulia and Sicily were actually higher than in the Arab Spring period, and doubled in Lampedusa compared to the previous quarter.”
  • “In July 2012 the facilitation networks targeted Sicily instead of Pantelleria and Lampedusa, as it is harder for the migrants to reach the Italian mainland from the small islands. Migrants claim that the facilitators may start to focus on the southern coast of Sicily, as they expect lower surveillance there.”
  • “[T]here were some significant increases of various nationalities such as Tunisians and Egyptians departing from their own countries, and Somalis and Eritreans departing from Libya.”
  • “Several reports included details of how sub-Saharan migrants were often deceived, over-charged or even left to drown by their facilitators during the embarkation process.”
  • “For some time there has been a steady flow of Afghans and, to a lesser extent, Pakistanis arriving in the southern Italian blue borders of Calabria and Apulia with some very large increases observed during Q3 2012. In fact, according to the FRAN data there were more detections in this region than ever before.”
  • “JO EPN Aeneas 2012 started on 2 July. The operational plan defines two operational areas, Apulia and Calabria, covering the seashore along the Ionian Sea and part of the Adriatic Sea.”
  • “JO EPN Indalo 2012 started in [the Western Mediterranean] on 16 May covering five zones of the south-eastern Spanish sea border and extending into the Western Mediterranean.”
  • “Increased border surveillance along the Mauritanian coast generated by the deployment of joint Mauritanian-Spanish police teams and also joint maritime and aerial patrols in Mauritanian national waters has reduced departures towards the Canary Islands but also may have resulted in a displacement effect to the Western Mediterranean route from the Moroccan coast.”
  • “The good cooperation among the Spanish, Senegalese and Mauritanian authorities and the joint patrols in the operational sea areas and on the coastline of Senegal and Mauritania have resulted in a displacement of the departure areas of migrant boats towards the Canary Islands, with the reactivation of the Western African route (from north of Mauritania to the Western Sahara territory) used by the criminal networks operating in Mauritania.”

Here are excerpts from the Report focusing on the sea borders:

“Overall, in Q3 2012 there were fewer detections of illegal border-crossing than in any previous third quarter, following the launch of two Greek Operations: Aspida (Shield), which involved the deployment of ~1 800 Greek police officers to the Greek land border with Turkey, and Xenios Zeus, which focused on the inland apprehension of illegally staying persons. The much-increased surveillance and patrolling activities at the Greek-Turkish land border, combined with the lengthening of the detention period to up to 6 months, resulted in a drastic drop in the number of detections of irregular migrants from ~2 000 during the first week of August to below ten per week in each of the last few weeks of October. Perhaps somewhat predictably, there were increased detections of illegal border-crossing at both the Turkish sea border with Greece and land border with Bulgaria, indicative of weak displacement effects from the operational area….

Despite the clear impact of the Greek operational activities on the number of detections of illegal border-crossing, there is little evidence to suggest that the absolute flow of irregular migrants arriving in the region has decreased in any way. In fact, document fraud on flights from Istanbul increased once the Greek operations commenced. Hence, there remains a very significant risk of a sudden influx of migrants immediately subsequent to the end of the operations.”

[***]

4.1 Detections of Illegal border-crossing

“Overall, in Q3 2012 there were 22 093 detections of illegal border-crossing at the EU level, which is considerably lower than expected based on detections during previous quarters. In fact, there were fewer detections of illegal border-crossing than in any third quarter since data collection began in early 2008. The particularly low number of detections was due to vastly increased operational activity at the Greek land border with Turkey since 30 July 2012, and also to the overlapping effects of the end of the Arab Spring in its initial countries (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia) and far fewer detections of circular Albanian migrants illegally crossing the border into Greece.

The majority of detections were at the EU external land (66%), rather than sea border, but this was the lowest proportion for some time due to an increase in detections at the Greek sea border with Turkey – probably the result of a weak displacement effect from the land border. Nevertheless, the Greek land border with Turkey was still by far the undisputed hotspot for detections of illegal border-crossing.”

[***]

2012 Q3 Illegal Border Crossings“Figure 4 shows the evolution of the FRAN Indicator 1A – detections of illegal border- crossing, and the proportion of detections between the land and sea borders of the EU per quarter since the beginning of 2008. The third quarter of each year is usually influenced by weather conditions favourable for both approaching and illegally crossing the external border of the EU. Moreover, good conditions for illegal border-crossing also make it easier to detect such attempts. The combination of these two effects means that the third quarter of each year is usually the one with very high, and often the highest number of detections.”

[***]

4.2 Routes

“… As illustrated in Figure 8, in the third quarter of 2012 the most detections of illegal border-crossings were reported on the Eastern and Central Mediterranean routes, which is consistent with the overall trend for most third quarters in the past. However, on the Eastern Mediterranean route the summer peak of detections, which has been remarkably consistent over recent years, was much lower than expected following increased operational activity in the area resulting in far fewer detections during the final month of the quarter.

In the Central Mediterranean, increased detections of several nationalities illegally crossing the blue border to Lampedusa and Malta, as well as increased landings in Apulia and Calabria from Greece and Turkey, combined to produce the highest number of detections both before and after the prominent peak reported during the Arab Spring in 2011.

In Q3 2012, there were 11 072 detections of illegal border-crossing on the Eastern Mediterranean route, a 75% reduction compared to the same period in 2011, and most other third quarters (Fig. 8). Nevertheless this route was still the undisputed hotspot for illegal entries to the EU during the current reporting period, mostly because of vastly increased detections of Syrian nationals.”

Screen Shot 2013-06-17 at 1.45.32 PM[***]

4.2.1 Eastern Mediterranean Route

“…Italian Ionian coast: For some time there has been a steady flow of Afghans and, to a lesser extent, Pakistanis arriving in the southern Italian blue borders of Calabria and Apulia with some very large increases observed during
Q3 2012. In fact, according to the FRAN data there were more detections in this region than ever before. The most commonly detected migrants were from Afghanistan, which is a significant but steady trend. In contrast detections of migrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Syria have increased very sharply since the beginning of 2012.

JO EPN Aeneas 2012 started on 2 July. The operational plan defines two operational areas, Apulia and Calabria, covering the seashore along the Ionian Sea and part of the Adriatic Sea. As mentioned in previous FRAN Quarterlies,
the detections at the Greek-Turkish land border are directly correlated with detections in the Ionian Sea. In 2011, it was estimated that more than 15% of migrants reported at the Greek-Turkish land border were afterwards detected in Apulia and Calabria.”

[***]

4.2.2 Central Mediterranean Route

“… According to FRAN data, in Q3 2012 there were just 3 427 reported detections of illegal border-crossing on the main Central Mediterranean route (Italian Pelagic Islands, Sicily and Malta), a significant decrease compared to the same reporting period in 2011. However, this figure was still the highest reported so far in 2012, and was higher than the peak in 2010. Additionally, there were some significant increases in various nationalities.

On the Central Mediterranean route, detections of migrants from Tunisia continued to in crease from 82 during the last quarter of 2011 to over 1 000 in Q3 2012. Tunisians were not the only North African nationality to feature in the top five most detected nationalities in the Central Mediterranean region, as Egyptians were also detected in significant and increasing numbers (287). The fact that fewer Egyptians than Tunisians were detected in the Central Mediterranean should be interpreted in light of Egypt being eight times more populous than Tunisia, which shows that irregular migration pressure from Egypt is proportionally much lower than that from Tunisia.

Also significant in the Central Mediterranean during the third quarter of 2012 were detections of Somalis (854) and, following recent increases, also Eritreans (411). Somalis have been detected in similarly high numbers during previous reporting periods (for example over 1 000 in Q2 2012) but there were more Eritreans detected in Q3 2012 than ever before.

Some Syrian nationals were also detected using the direct sea route from Turkey to Italy but these tended to arrive in Calabria…..”

[***]

4.2.3 Western Mediterranean Route

“In 2011, irregular migration in the Western Mediterranean region increased steadily from just 890 detections in Q1 2011 to 3 568 detections in the third quarter of the year. A year later in Q3 2012, detections dropped to just over 2 000 detections, which was, nevertheless, the highest level so far in 2012.

As has been the case for several years, most of the detections involved Algerians (859) followed by migrants of unknown nationality (524, presumed to be sub-Saharan Africans). Algerians were mostly detected in Almeria
and at the land border with Morocco, the migrants of unknown nationality were mostly reported from the land borders.

JO EPN Indalo 2012 started in this region on 16 May covering five zones of the south-eastern
Spanish sea border and extending into the Western Mediterranean.

In Q3 2012, there were far fewer Moroccan nationals detected (79) compared to Q3 2011. Most were detected just east of the Gibraltar Strait, between Tangiers and Ceuta. According to the migrants’ statements, the area between Ksar Sghir and Sidi Kankouche is the most popular departing area among Moroccans who want to cross the Gibraltar strait (10.15 NM distance). The boats used for the sea crossing were toy boats bought by the migrants in a supermarket for EUR ~100….

Increased border surveillance along the Mauritanian coast generated by the deployment of joint Mauritanian-Spanish police teams and also joint maritime and aerial patrols in Mauritanian national waters has reduced departures towards the Canary Islands but also may have resulted in a displacement effect to the Western Mediterranean route from the Moroccan coast.”

[***]

4.2.4 Western African Route

“In the third quarter of 2012, there were just 40 detections of illegal border-crossing in this region, almost exclusively of Moroccan nationals but with an influx of Senegalese nationals….

The good cooperation among the Spanish, Senegalese and Mauritanian authorities and the joint patrols in the operational sea areas and on the coastline of Senegal and Mauritania have resulted in a displacement of the
departure areas of migrant boats towards the Canary Islands, with the reactivation of the Western African route (from north of Mauritania to the Western Sahara territory) used by the criminal networks operating in Mauritania.”

[***]

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Click here or here here for Frontex FRAN Report for Q3 2012.

Click here for previous post summarizing Frontex FRAN Report for Q2 2012.

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